Will the bitcoin price rise after halving in 2024?

Another halving is expected in 2024, which will reduce the reward per block from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This means the following: the remuneration of miners with the same equipment capacity used will fall by half. This, in turn, will increase the payback period of the mining farms, which has already become longer due to the fall in the BTC price.

Far-sighted miners have foreseen this point, buying equipment so that by the time of halving it will have completely exhausted its resource. After the halving, they would buy equipment with more capacity and continue mining. But most of the miners will switch to other coins or stop mining altogether.

In theory, this could lead to the following:

A decrease in the number of miners means a decrease in the rate at which new coins are mined and a decrease in supply in the market.

A decrease in supply while maintaining the same level of demand would automatically push the price up.

Arcane Research analysts believe that the role of miners in total sales has dramatically decreased since 2020 halving and they no longer have such a significant impact on the BTC price. According to their data, the average daily volume of mined coins is 900 BTC, or 0.7% of the spot turnover. Before halving, the figure was 1,800 BTC or 2%. This means that the reduction in issuance volumes can easily be compensated either by a decrease in demand amid a stagnant market or by cryptocurrency "whales" capable of throwing a large volume of BTC onto the market to manipulate the price.

In other words, the mined volume of coins is not enough to move the price significantly. In addition, most miners are in no hurry to sell coins at one-third of the coin's historical high in anticipation of an increase. Therefore, it is very likely that the upcoming halving will have little or no effect on the price, succumbing to stronger fundamentals.

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