USD/TRY now gives some signs of stabilization below 23.7000
USD/TRY trades within a tight range near 23.60 on Wednesday, adding to the inconclusive price action seen in the previous session. The needle-like rally in USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier around 23.7000 so far. Indeed, some respite for the beleaguered lira seems to have emerged after President Erdogan said he “accepted” the views from the freshly appointed economic team after finmin M. Simsek suggested he will take swift steps in coordination with the central bank.
However, Erdogan later stressed that his particular views on monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates, have not changed, opening the door to further uncertainty ahead of the next monetary policy meeting by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) on June 22. Indeed, it remains currently unclear whether Governor Erkan will be effective in implementing her monetary policies while working under the leadership of Erdogan. The first challenge is expected to occur later in the month during the CBRT gathering. There is a significant difference in opinions among investors regarding the appropriate course of action, with suggestions ranging from minor interest rate increases to a potentially drastic strategy involving a substantial rate hike. So far, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 23.5840 and faces the next hurdle at 23.6804 (all-time high June 12) followed by 24.00 (round level). On the downside, a break below 20.0526 (55-day SMA) would expose 19.5261 (100-day SMA) and finally 19.0465 (200-day SMA).