AUD/USD Rebounds on Mixed US Data, Focus Shifts to Aussie Jobs Report
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) early Thursday, fueled by improving risk sentiment. A light US economic calendar and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to significantly boost the Greenback. AUD/USD is currently trading around 0.6423.
US Economic Data: Mixed Signals
Recent US data shows a resilient consumer and robust Industrial Production, countered by declining Building Permits and Housing Starts due to higher mortgage rates. Fed Chair Powell's commentary emphasizing the need to maintain rates high to combat inflation was interpreted as hawkish but had minimal market impact.
Shifting Fed Outlook
The Fed's December 2023 projections initially signaled three rate cuts based on the disinflation process. However, higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data triggered a shift in market expectations towards a less dovish Fed stance.
Australian Jobs Data: Key Catalyst
Thursday's Australian jobs report will be closely analyzed. A weaker-than-expected Employment Change figure (7.2K forecast) and a rise in the Unemployment Rate would signal the need for a more accommodative Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy stance, potentially pressuring the AUD/USD pair.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains
Despite the recent rebound, AUD/USD maintains a bearish bias. A decisive daily close above the February 13th low of 0.6442 is needed to shift the outlook.
Key Support Levels:
- 0.6400
- April 16th daily low at 0.6389
- 0.6350
- 0.6300