EUR/USD Declines Following Eurozone Inflation Miss and Strong US Jobs Data

Eurozone Inflation and ECB Rate Expectations:

• The Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) grew by 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in September, below expectations.
• This suggests that inflation is declining towards the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2.0%.
• The weaker-than-expected inflation data increases the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the ECB, which could weaken the Euro.

US Jobs Data and Economic Indicators:

• The US ADP Employment Change data showed a rise of 143K private payrolls in September, exceeding expectations.
• The Eurozone Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 6.4% in August.
• The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September remained in contraction territory, missing expectations.

Geopolitical Factors and US Dollar Strength:

• The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased safe-haven flows into the US Dollar, supporting its strength.
• The US Dollar gained ground after the release of strong US job market data.

Technical Analysis:

• The EUR/USD pair is currently trading near the bottom of a multi-year range.
• A break below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1041 could confirm a downtrend, with potential targets at 1.0875, 1.0777, and 1.0600.
• The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests a bearish bias.