USD/MXN hits lowest level since February 2020 and the rebounds
The USD/MXN broke below 19.25 and fell to 19.03, reaching the lowest level since February 2020. During the beginning of the American session, the dollar started to recover ground. As of writing, the pair is hovering around 19.17, far from the lows, but still on its way to the lowest daily close in years. The area around 19.00/05 is a major support. A break lower would open the doors to more losses. As long as it remains above, a consolidation between 19.00/05 and 19.25/30 seems likely.
The decline took place amid a rally of emerging market currencies. USD/BRL is falling by 1.20%, USD/KRW by 1.05%, and USD/ZAR by 1.05%. US Q3 GDP data is due on Wednesday. The critical report of the week will be on Friday with the numbers from the US official employment report. Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 200K and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%.
In Mexico, the central bank will release its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday. The November CPI is due December 8. While inflation headlines have been trading lower, the core is at multi-year highs. At the last policy meeting on November 10, the bank hiked rates from 75 bp to 10.0% and said In its next meetings, the Board will assess the magnitude of the upward adjustments to the reference rate based on the prevailing conditions. This suggests a potential downshift to 50 bp at the next meeting on December 15. Indeed, there was one dissent in favor of a more minor 50 bp move and others may follow if inflation pressures ease”, explained an analyst at BBH.
In Mexico, the central bank will release its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday. The November CPI is due December 8. While inflation headlines have been trading lower, the core is at multi-year highs. At the last policy meeting on November 10, the bank hiked rates from 75 bp to 10.0% and said In its next meetings, the Board will assess the magnitude of the upward adjustments to the reference rate based on the prevailing conditions. This suggests a potential downshift to 50 bp at the next meeting on December 15. Indeed, there was one dissent in favor of a more minor 50 bp move and others may follow if inflation pressures ease”, explained an analyst at BBH.